Mark's Market Talk

Mar 28, 2022

Last week the market moves did not feel huge and yet at the end of the week we were higher all the way around. July corn gained 22 cents while the Dec ended the week 24 higher. Wheat was about 45 higher in all markets. On the bean side July was 43 higher while the Nov finished 30 cents higher. Nearby beans found some strength in export sales that were announced last week. However, we are still 400 million bushels below last years sales pace at this point. So, with that you have to ask where are the beans going to push this market. Perhaps the correct question would be, where have the beans gone. Domestic demand was huge the first half of this marketing year. Crushers were making 2.00 plus a bushel so there was a push to process all they can. The northern river ports were closed at the time and rail movement was less than desirable. Now it seems they have almost worked their selves into a corner. Rail car shortages have some plants loaded up with oil and nowhere to go with it. Meal seems to be moving as the livestock business is good and the price of urea is making all natural cattle diets a better buy which helps sell meal. The river markets are now dominating the bean pricing as China and the unknown have been buying beans. You have to chuckle some when you see an announced sale to “unknown”. I think we all know who the unknown is. Even with the South American bean harvest in full gear we saw old crop beans headed to China last week from the US. With that we have not seen the 2.00 plus inverse to fall prices ease yet. If we were to see planting issues here the new crop could creep closer to the old instead of the other way around which is the more normal course. Compared to some previous weeks the corn market was quiet last week. There was very little new news to look at. The war continues in Ukraine, and it appears spring planting will be tough to accomplish. They are only able to rail about 10 percent of their normal exports right now as their ocean ports remain closed.  The only other news is the USDA will release the March planting intentions report Thursday. The average trade guess on corn plantings is 92 million acres compared to the 93.4 million that was planted last year. For beans the average is 88.9 compared to 87.2. I am sure this report will move the markets. I will not hazard a guess which way.