Mark's Market Talk for March 16, 2026

The war in Iran continues, and the rally in grain prices also continues. Last week corn closed 7 cents higher, while beans were 24 cents higher. Crude oil was higher once again, and that is the main driver in grain prices.

The downside to this will be how fast grain prices will fall once the price of oil comes back down. It is estimated that the funds are right on the verge of being record long on bean contracts. A lot of new money has come into this market, and the late entries are usually the ones that lack the backing to survive a downturn. Therefore, they will be the first to exit their trades, and should the war slow down, they may take others with them.

This two-week rally has led forecasters to predict anywhere from 4.5 to 6 million more bean acres in this country. Without better mandates and subsidies from the government, the biofuel business may not live up to its potential. Congress returns from recess this week, and the bills to fix biofuel and E15 are on the table waiting for passage.

The war has driven the price of oil up simply because some of the oil cannot get from point A to point B. We do not have a world shortage of oil or grain. Fundamental changes can move prices for the long haul, but disruptions in shipping and the like are short-term issues that will get fixed soon.

The markets are giving us some of the best marketing opportunities we have had in a year. The time may not be right to clean your bins, but it is the right time to make use of this war rally and catch up on your marketing plans.