Mark's Market Talk for March 23, 2026

We are heading into the fourth week of the Iranian war, and the end is still nowhere in sight. Oil prices have held firm as global supply concerns continue to build. For a couple of weeks, grain markets followed that strength higher.

That changed in a hurry early last week. Last Monday, May soybeans closed limit down after news broke that the Trump and Xi meeting was being pushed back. That kind of reaction tells you exactly where the funds were positioned, as they had been heavily betting on additional old crop soybean sales to China.

With that optimism suddenly in question, the market corrected fast. What is not getting much attention is China’s behavior behind the scenes. They have yet to take delivery on all the beans they purchased this winter, and reports suggest Brazilian cargos are being rejected due to foreign material issues.

Historically, China tends to find reasons to cancel or renegotiate purchases when demand softens. More often than not, those cargos do not come home and instead get repriced. That keeps beans in the pipeline and adds pressure to an already nervous market.

For the week, May corn finished down 2 cents while May beans dropped 64 cents. Most of the soybean losses came during Monday’s sharp selloff. That kind of move is a reminder of how quickly fund-driven markets can turn.

Looking ahead, the USDA March reports will be released next Tuesday. Until then, the war will remain the primary market driver and continue to influence outside markets like energy. Funds are still heavily long both corn and soybeans, which leaves the market vulnerable to more volatility if outside influences shift.

At some point, the influence of war headlines will fade. When that happens, grain markets will have to stand on their own fundamentals. Right now those fundamentals are not overly bullish, with no major weather threats in the U.S. or South America and global grain stocks remaining ample.

One area that deserves attention is input costs moving forward. While much of this year’s crop inputs have already been purchased or applied, continued strength in oil will begin to impact next year’s cost structure. Energy touches every part of agriculture, from fertilizer production to transportation.

We are already seeing that play out in freight. Barge and ocean shipping rates moved sharply higher last week and are adding cost to the system. While end users may absorb some of those costs, they typically claw it back in the prices they offer producers.

The old saying still applies that farmers pay retail and sell wholesale. In today’s environment, that gap feels wider than ever. This is not a market to get greedy in, and rallies should be used as opportunities until the fundamentals improve.