Mark's Market Talk for March 9, 2026

Last week was a rally week for all commodities, both old and new crop grain. However you frame it, the bottom line is this: it's a war rally, and not much else.

Crude oil jumped over $20 a barrel last week due to escalating conflict in the Middle East, which in turn pushed soybean oil to new highs along with ethanol values. No one can say with certainty how long this war will last, but it likely won't drag on for three years like the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Odds are oil will start flowing sooner rather than later, and crude prices will stabilize. In the meantime, physical demand for corn and soybeans is unlikely to remain elevated unless weather problems emerge.

May corn finished the week 12 cents higher, settling at $4.60. The funds had been neutral on corn and may have ended the week slightly long. Even so, there appears to be plenty of old corn still waiting to be priced. December corn was up 15 cents for the week, and it may need evidence of further cuts in U.S. corn plantings to sustain upward momentum.

May beans closed the week 30 cents higher, carried by bean oil values. Unlike corn, funds are heavily long on bean contracts and at this point, that positioning appears driven more by speculation than fundamentals. A stampede to the exits could happen at any time once funds begin jumping ship. A lot of money has moved into the bean market recently, and latecomers can find themselves underwater fast if the war narrative shifts. New crop beans closed the week 19 cents higher, with the November contract trading above $11.50 on Friday before settling around $11.47.

This week may be make-or-break. After this, it will likely take weather events or an acreage battle to push prices meaningfully higher. We're all human, we all want to sell at the top. The hard part is knowing when that moment has arrived.