Mark's Market Talk

We saw a two-way street on commodity markets last week. Corn and wheat were lower while beans jumped higher lead by export demand. July corn ended the week 3 cents lower while the Dec was 17 lower. The July tested 8.00 early in the week but could not hold it as the planters were rolling which eased some supply concerns. The Argentina corn harvest is progressing, and they are priced under the US so the export business is headed their way for now. We will start to see some actual planted acre data in a month, and it will tell us if farmers kept their plans or changed gears. There will be some prevent plant in the northern plains as wet weather continues in those areas. With the current numbers in play if we fall off the 177-corn yield from the May report, our carryout could suddenly become an issue. The wheat market saw a lot of up and down last week as world news was changing almost daily. It appears some of the news is meant to manipulate the market when we see the wild swings we saw last week. Beans were the bright spot in the commodity world last week. The July contract closed 59 cents higher while the Nov was 23 higher. World veg prices were supportive and export numbers were bullish as US beans are very competitive in the world market. Crushers continue to make good money, so they are actively seeking supplies. Farmers are down to the last of their beans and normally when they start to run out the market will bounce higher. Inflation is still running crazy and with the huge Wall Street sell off, we may see more interest in owning bean futures. There is a lot to think about as we move into the growing season. If we see perfect weather grains could swing 1 to 2 dollars lower. However, if we throw some heat and drought into the picture along with great exports, suddenly we could be looking at record prices. A sound marketing plan would have you spreading some of the risk out and locking in some new crop prices. Summer weather may or may not throw hot water on the yields and markets. A little protection now may let you sleep better in the weeks to come.