Mark's Market Talk for May 14, 2024

We survived a USDA report last Friday that was for the most part neutral. And yet the trade viewed it in a positive light. The new crop corn carryout was lowered 265 million bushels to a number closer to 2 billion. If, and this is not a prediction, the wet weather takes 2 million acres out of corn production, we might see some fireworks. That would take us down to a 1.75 carryout and suddenly we may be looking at 5.00 plus corn. Or we get the crop planted and we have corn growing weather and suddenly we have a 2.3 carryout, and we are hoping the price stays above 3.50. No one ever said being a farmer was easy and that doesn’t look like it will change in the coming year. The bean numbers leaned bearish, but they followed corn and wheat higher last Friday. Corn ended the week 10 cents higher while beans were up 4 cents. The funds have reduced their short positions in corn and beans so now it will be up to both crops to find their way higher. The wet weather is starting to delay planting in several areas of the corn belt. However, traders live by the saying that rain makes grain. Planting weather will be critical the rest of May and will direct prices in the nearby. Then we move onto the South American second crop and our summer weather.