Mark's Market Talk for May 11, 2026

There were more downs than ups last week in the grain markets. Daily news from the Iranian war continued to dominate headlines. The ceasefire was still technically in place at the end of the week, but it looked fragile at times as both sides appeared willing to test the limits. Crude oil traded both higher and lower throughout the week before ultimately closing lower. Even so, fuel prices across the United States continue to climb as retailers and oil companies insist the increases are still catching up to earlier spikes in crude.

Roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, and average gasoline prices in the United States have risen sharply since the conflict began. What frustrates many Americans is that the United States produces plenty of its own oil, yet consumers still end up paying global market prices. To make matters worse for agriculture, Congress still has not moved forward with legislation to legalize year-round E15 nationwide. It is another reminder of how much influence large industries can carry in Washington, and agriculture rarely seems to hold the stronger hand.

If current reports are accurate, fuel prices could remain elevated for much of the year even if tensions in the Middle East cool quickly. Prices climbed in a matter of weeks, but history suggests it could take months for them to settle back near where they were earlier this spring. Free enterprise can be difficult to understand when markets move this aggressively against consumers.

In the grain trade, corn finished the week 10 cents lower while soybeans managed to bounce 5 cents higher. This week brings several major events for the markets. The first is the May WASDE report, where USDA will release its first projected carryout numbers for the 2026 crop year. On the surface it may not seem like a major release, but historically this report has been one of the more important market movers of the year because it begins shaping expectations for the next marketing season.

The second event comes later in the week when President Trump is scheduled to travel to China to meet with Chairman Xi. Agriculture will be watching closely because any progress toward a trade agreement could have major implications for U.S. grain exports, especially soybeans. Part of the current premium in the soybean market is tied to speculation surrounding this meeting. Still, the market has already built in a fair amount of optimism ahead of any actual announcement. As often happens in commodity markets, traders sometimes buy the rumor long before the facts arrive, and even positive news can trigger a selloff if expectations become too high beforehand.