Mark's Market Talk

Nov 08, 2021

Corn and beans both closed lower last week as yield reports continue to get better. December corn was 15 cents lower while November beans lost 43 cents. The November WADSE report comes out this week and most are expecting higher corn and bean yields. There is also concern about the slow export demand we have seen lately. There were reports this week of Brazil offering some late December bean shipments to China which would be a month ahead of normal. That could shut the US out of the Chinese market sooner than normal and would increase our carryout number. The trade is expecting the government to add somewhere between a half to a full bushel to the bean yield. If the added amount exceeds a bushel, we had better duck. The specs have mostly lost interest in owning beans and without them it will be difficult for prices to improve. Therefore, we need a spark to provide them a reason to get back into the bean market. That could be poor South American weather or increased Chinese demand. At this point neither one appears to offer us much hope. Corn appears to have more going for it. Ethanol demand has been booming as increased driving is spurring demand. High input costs for the2022 corn crop will help push corn futures higher as producers will need an incentive to plant corn next year. Veg oil pricing has helped keep bean prices higher this past year. It has lost some of its luster lately but now bean meal is starting to wake up some and it might become a price pusher. Markets are normally on a teeter totter more often than not and today the bean market seems to be under pressure. It is surprising how fast we can go from supply concerns to large carry outs in a years’ time. I wrote last week how we need to be looking at pricing some 2022 beans and I still think it is a wise move. Anytime you can get over 11.00 for beans is a good thing. Most of us would only need one hand to count how many years we were able to sell beans for more than 11. However, we would need to take our shoes off to tally how many years we sold beans below 8.50