Mark's Market Talk for November 20, 2023

Last week it looked like the corn market was finally headed north as we saw strength in both the board and local basis levels. At the end of the week March corn was only 3 cents higher after a late week reversal. The local basis did improve 25 cents as a local terminal prepared to open all dumps this week and they might be under bought. We lose 1 or 2 days this week to the Thanksgiving holiday, and it will be difficult to predict how much grain will move. This is also a time of the year when we generally see a better chance of higher prices. Harvest is mostly done, and farmers are normally content to wait until after January 1 to move grain. Southern Iowa was blessed with a larger crop than we expected so the threat of a wall of corn coming to town will keep bids in check. 10 or 20 cent rallies should garner some sales as the chance of a 50-cent rally would take a true weather scare either here or in South America. January beans went on a roller coaster ride last week due to the changing weather forecasts down south. We had 3 up days and 2 down days. Unfortunately, the down days won, and we ended the week 7 cents lower. Soy meal has been the price leader as the US tries to fill the world void made by the lack of Argentina supplies. Late week the chances for rain in the dry areas of Brazil brought a swift correction to the downside. US drought maps continue to draw attention, but it is way too early to talk a short 2024 US crop. We will need to get thru the South American crop first, so we have an idea of the immediate needs.