Mark's Market Talk for November 6, 2023

Harvest is almost behind us, and it is only the first week of November. Most of us were concerned going into harvest we might be disappointed with the yields. However, it seems the crops did well in most areas given the lack of rain we had. Corn was especially surprising in many areas. The early July rains did a great job carrying the crop. Bean yields have been somewhat variable as it is apparent anywhere that got just a bit more rain had better yields. The corn market has been slipping for 2 or 3 weeks. It was 3 cents lower last week after the board finally reversed course on Friday and it closed 7 higher for the day. Meanwhile beans have rebounded nicely and ended last week 32 cents higher. Meal is still the price leader as global demand is good and Argentina is still out of beans to crush. The South American weather is adding some risk as the dry areas get dryer and the wet areas get wetter. We just raised a better than average crop here with dry conditions. The seed genetics we have today means it will handle a bigger weather problem than in the past. SA is in the middle of their spring planting, and we know that it is good to plant into dry dirt. Therefore, it might be early to base a rally on their current weather. If things haven’t improved down there by mid-December we can start talking some possible crop loss.