Mark's Market Talk for November 25, 2024

Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday week we appear to have a lot of unrest in the grain markets. We have seen several weeks lately of rollercoaster movements. Export sales of both corn and beans are running well ahead of last year, but it may be this is some pent-up demand that had been building since prior to our harvest. The window for bean sales will start closing right after the first of the year as early South American beans become available. Brazilian beans for March delivery are 50 to 80 cents below US prices which means we are too high for that time frame to compete. As producers we have a hard time accepting, we are overpriced as we are struggling to meet breakeven prices today. Right now, 10.00 local would buy lots of beans. The problem is today we are way closer to 9 local than 10. Today the weather in SA has been conducive to planting beans and they are now ahead of average on their planting progress. Bullish people say there is a lot of time and weather before their harvest, while bearish people point to the world bean stocks and ask what will we do if SA harvests a large crop. It all bears watching. It currently looks like corn has a strong base below it as sales and usage have been higher than expected. At the same time there is not a current spark that would move us above the current trading range. Basis levels have improved as harvest winds down and end users work harder to pry some bushels loose. This may continue through December as post-harvest movement seems a little slow. However, when we turn the calendar to 2025, we will see more movement as the need for cash will be stronger than we have seen for a couple of years. Last week corn gained a couple cents while beans lost 15 cents. Every marketing year is different and right now this year may be way different. Best keep your pencils sharp.