Mark's Market Talk

Oct 24, 2022

There was less volatility in the grain markets last week as December corn was down a nickel, while November beans ended the week 12 cents higher. Lack of export sales continues to haunt the corn market. Reports that Ukraine corn was 2.00 a bushel cheaper than our corn did not help us any. Of course, there is a question of who is selling the corn out of the Ukraine. It sounds like Russia is stealing a lot of the grain moving out of the black sea and taking the money for themselves. The agreement to use the Black Sea corridor expires soon and there are some who think it will not stay open. This could improve corn sales from the US, but the dry river conditions have severely limited grain movement on the Mississippi so getting crops to the port has been difficult. The late fall forecast does not have good rain chances so the river will not be normal before spring at best. US beans are still the cheapest in the world and China continues to reluctantly buy from us. Once the South American harvest starts around the first of the year, they will buy from them. The value of the dollar has stabilized a little bit which will encourage funds to invest in commodities again. Wall Street had a better week as there were more up days than down for a change. Meanwhile harvest has moved very rapidly the past 3 weeks. The bean harvest is wrapping up and most have a good start on their corn. Corn moistures were slow to come down at the start of harvest and now they are drying fast. Normally the harvest lows are put in during the second half of harvest. Interior basis levels are telling us a lot of this crop is going into the bin as the plants are still bidding better than normal. There may be some good marketing opportunities prior to the first of the year as most of this grain won’t move till after the first. The final thought concerns the drought we seem to be in the middle of right now. We have probably been drier at some point, but the degree of dryness is severe right now as we head into winter in 6 weeks. Hopefully we see some good rain prior to freeze up or we might be in for a long winter. We like dry springs for planting, but right now we need to hope for a wet one.