Mark's Market Talk for October 23, 2023

Last week was an up week for all grains as corn was 2 cents higher and beans were 22 cents higher. Both commodities pushed up and above resistance. December corn failed to end the week above 5.00, which is a current objective. With harvest well past the halfway point and talk of some impending Chinese buying perhaps we have put a harvest low in. However, if these sales don’t happen soon, we could easily trade back down to recent lows. Yield reports have been all over the board with surprises, good and bad being heard. November beans were able to finish the week above 13.00, though barely at 13.02. Bean stocks are much tighter than corn and if the USDA would lower the yield in the next report, we could easily see a rally. But we still need to see some export sales and we did not see many last week. Soymeal has led this recent bean rally as there has been large demand both domestic and export for meal. Soy oil was a bouncing ball last week. It tried to ride crude higher, but the veg oil market is not as tight as it was this summer which kept prices on the defensive. Bean basis improved last week as many areas finished harvest and end users had to bid up to get available stocks. If the predicted rains do come this week, we could see further improvement in bean basis as it is hard to open bin doors once they are shut. Corn basis relaxed some last week as corn harvest ramped up. We could see more normal basis levels through the end of harvest and then the give and take game will start as the plants try to find the selling point for producers. It appears producers are keeping all the grain they can at home. They will want to be rewarded for this work so it probably will not come to market until after the first of the year. Most farmers are pushing for an early harvest finish so they can tackle their work list and hauling grain out of bins will not be at the top of many lists.