Mark's Market Talk for October 14, 2024

Oct 14, 2024

Last week’s grain report was mostly neutral, but as normally happens a neutral report does not produce a bullish reaction. They left the corn yield close to last month’s average which left the carryout just below 2 billion bushels. Some feel the yield will go up in later reports as there appears to be more above average yields than below. A sale of 23 million bushels was announced Friday to unknown, which is usually China. We are currently competitive in the world market and sometimes when China starts buying corn they may buy a large amount in a short period of time. For the week corn was down 9 cents as harvest pressure is already starting to put pressure on the hedge market. Basis levels are getting wider as farmers finish the bean harvest and put the corn heads on. Corn yields in most of our trade area are running well above average. For some it could be a once in a lifetime yield, or will it become the new normal? The infrastructure in south central Iowa will get tested this fall and space will become scarce. Beans fell 32 cents last week as harvest is headed to turn 4. The pipeline is full and bean space at elevators is filling up fast. The report left the bean carryout in the 550-million-bushel range, which is a bearish number. Yields have been difficult to judge. From what we have heard it appears the short season beans planted early have been the best. Locally, several producers have commented that the full season beans lacked the August rain they needed to finish filling, and they did not yield as well as earlier varieties. We have seen regular export sales as we have moved into our timeframe to be the dominant world supplier. Hopefully we can whittle the carryout down some as the marketing year progresses.