Mark's Market Talk
Sep 06, 2022
We seem to be singing the same song, just a different verse each week. Last Monday the markets started out as expected with corn higher and beans lower per the Pro Farmer yield estimates. News was thin the next 3 days and so we traded lower as that is the easiest way to go on no news days. Then Friday came along and the energies were higher while the dollar index was lower and the traders that had not left for the holiday ramped things up. Dec corn was 8 higher Friday while Nov beans were 26 cents higher. This helped the weekly numbers as corn ended the week 1 higher and beans were 41 lower. This past week confirms that we are still in for a wild ride this fall when it comes to the grain markets. The next USDA report will be out on Monday September 12, and it will be interesting to see if they follow the Pro Farmer numbers on yield. By the middle of the month, we will see some actual yield data and that will give us something else to trade on. US corn is priced above the world market while beans are very competitive. Export sales of beans have been promising, however the USDA is having trouble releasing their normal export report and it will be 2 more weeks before they fix the system. Hopefully we won’t find a poor surprise once this is fixed. New crop prices are still decent with corn in the 6.20 range and beans around 13.50. Ukraine is shipping more grain each week, but no one is saying how the quality is. World weather has been very unpredictable and that will change some of the grain movements in the coming year. South America will start planting beans this month and the trade expects record acreages to go into the ground. The early acre prediction that someone put out for the US is saying we will plant 94 million plus acres of corn and 88 plus million acres of beans. A lot will change between now and next April.