Mark's Market Talk

Sep 11, 2023

Harvest has started in the area as there have been a few corn combines in the field. What little talk we have heard about corn yields appears to be good, especially in the northern 2/3rds of our trade area. Moisture seems to be variable on the early corn, it is a touch wetter on the better dirt. We will probably see this in a lot of fields until we get later in the season. There is still some premium for earlier delivered corn, but that is shrinking fast as more people start harvesting. Plus, there has been a fair amount of old crop corn moved the past 2 weeks. Most realize they held on too long and are taking a lot less now than a month ago. New crop corn prices are not very exciting as the trade has been slipping lower the past 3 weeks. The September stocks report will be released this Tuesday. Normally this report is a sleeper and doesn’t draw a lot of attention. This year is different. There are a lot of eyes on this report as they wait to see if the USDA follows thru and lowers the crop yields after a terribly hot and dry August. Will they follow the Pro Farmers lower yield numbers, or will they maintain their August projections? We have seen some decent bean export sales lately, but not a lot of corn. Brazil is getting to the end of their Safrina corn and perhaps the sales will come our way after that. However, Brazil is preparing to start planting their first season corn and the conditions today are not threatening. China’s economy is in a downtrend and their consumers are having trouble making ends meet. This is lessoning the demand for better protein which in turns slows food imports into China. This is something they need to address quickly. Empty stomachs make for restless people and the leadership does not want that. Last week December corn was up 2 cents while November beans were 6 lower. The bean market took a tumble midweek as there was some liquidation taking place. The funds were long 90,000 bean contracts and suddenly some traders got nervous. We may see more of this until we start seeing some actual yield data. Everyone has an opinion on where the bean yields will be, but we won’t know until the bean harvest kicks in stronger in a couple of weeks. The corn balance sheet has some wiggle room in it. It is different on the bean side as a 1 to 2 bushel swing in the bean yields can make or break the price. Let us know when you get going and want to deliver grain to one of our locations. As always, we will adjust our harvest hours to accommodate your needs. Be safe.