Mark's Market Talk

Sep 18, 2023

We saw lower markets last week as December corn was down 8 and November beans were down 23 cents. Harvest has started in many areas, but we are not seeing enough pressure to be the sole cause of the decline. Other factors such as poor export sales, bean traders being long, and the unknown when it comes to yields is providing price pressure. Nearby basis levels have widened out some as harvest bushels are coming in. We are seeing a lot of sub 20 percent corn moisture and it is only mid-September. We will start to see some beans next week and once the combines return to the corn a lot of it may be dry enough to store. If we do have a fast and quick harvest, we may see the markets dip a bit more than normal here at the start. But this may encourage the markets to head higher before the harvest is over. South America started planting corn last week and it sounds like the bean planters will be rolling soon. This has become the enemy to US agriculture as South America is willing to sell their grain however low they need to in order to move it. This will be tough to continue in the long term as inputs still have to be used and paid for. Right now, if your crop isn’t priced you will find it hard to get breakeven prices on corn. That means you will need to closely monitor the markets and try to get a price that will minimize your loss. Grain marketing the past 2 years was easy compared to what we are facing this year.