Mark's Market Talk for September 9, 2024

Once again the board of trade had a good run going last week until we hit Friday. Friday morning, we started higher and then it seemed we ran into some resistance, and we closed 18 lower on beans and 5 lower on corn. We did end the holiday shortened week higher as corn and beans were both 5 cents higher on the week. However, basis levels in our area slipped last week as terminals took 5 to 10 cents away. Early corn harvest has started east of our area, and we will see more combines rolling in the next 2 to 3 weeks. Some early beans will come out before the end of September as they are changing quickly. The recent rally on the board came as the funds filled some of their short positions. They have cut their corn shorts in half the last 3 weeks. This has helped us gain some ground and it leads you to wonder if they think a low has been put in. Today it looks like they may be right. However, as harvest gets going in more areas yield talk will dominate the fresh news. Most of our area looks really good and a lot of producers feel they may harvest their biggest crop ever. The unknown is the highly productive areas in the corn belt that had trouble getting their crop planted timely. This great late fall weather is helping those areas and if they avoid an early frost, they will have a good crop. The September supply and demand report comes out later this week. As mentioned last month, there doesn’t seem to be a “quiet” USDA report anymore. Not much has changed since the August report, but that does not mean we won’t see some changes. Last week finished the export season for corn and beans. We exported almost 2.2 billion bushels of corn which was a vast improvement from last year. We exported 1.7 billion bushels of beans which was a disappointment compared to the last couple of years. A large part of this was the lack of Chinese buying. They prefer to buy all they can from South America and love to shun us whenever possible. Our trade deficit with China is record high, even when you compare agricultural products. Perhaps it is time we shun their products and bring this deal back into line.