Mark's Market Talk

Aug 09, 2021

Last week we saw a missed finish as Dec corn was 11 cents higher while Nov beans ended 10 cents lower. It was one of the quieter weeks for overall movement as new news was slow and the trade is waiting for this Thursday’s WASDE report. It is expected they will adjust the average yields in this report. The question is which way and how much. In their July report they kept 179.6 for a corn yield and 50.8 for beans. The latest average trade guess is 177.6 and 50.4. The range of estimates are close as with corn they run from 175.7 to 180 and beans range from 49.3 to 51.3. Should the USDA exceed these numbers we could see a sharp movement. However, with the Pro Farmer crop tour starting next week a lot of traders may choose to hold back if they can. This tour has gained more respect as the years go by. They use a system that seems to work, and it appears it will get a workout this year considering the wide range of crop conditions we have. After that the news will be slow until we start to see some early harvest numbers. China was back at the buyers table last week as they purchased some beans for fall delivery. Rumors have it they are looking to source some corn, but as of last Friday that hadn’t happened. The second crop corn in South America continues to deteriorate which will lead buyers to our front step. We always talk about the need for spec money to enter the commodity markets to propel them higher. The stock market gives us a lot of competition for investment dollars. I did a little fact checking last week. The DOW Jones was established in 1896.It first hit the 1000 mark in 1972. I was in high school and can remember this being a huge deal. It hit the 10,000 mark in 1999 and the 20,000 mark 19 years later in 2018. 2 years later in 2020 it hit 30,000 and just 6 months later it went over 35,000. It is easy to see who is competing for investment dollars. For commodities to get their share there must be excitement caused by weather scares, increasing demand, and government policy. I only pointed out the high points of the stock market. Just like crop prices, stock prices can and do fall hard and fast. Nothing in life is guaranteed.