Mark's Market Talk

Aug 30, 2021

We had a somewhat slow week in the markets as new news is scarce. Weather becomes less of a mover as we get closer to harvest. By now the corn is what it is and more rain or more heat really won’t matter much. A lot of beans would still benefit from another shower as they finish filling. Some of our area got a good shower the middle of last week and those that got an inch or more may get 5 or 10 extra bushels of beans. Last week Dec corn gained 17 cents while Nov beans were 32 cents higher. The weather news is already shifting to South America. The odds of a La Nina event are increasing as the ocean waters are cooling. Though it is hard to lose a crop before it is planted, traders are paying attention to any crop issues as the oil seed carry outs are still very low. South America is expected to plant record acres of beans. Should that not happen our domestic prices could bounce right up. Locally old crop basis for both corn and beans narrowed up last week as end users try to stretch their supplies to new crop and found they were a little short. It appears we have enough grain, but it may not be where it is needed. Corn pricing was interesting at the end of last week. There was as much as a dollar difference between a late August bid and an October bid. However, there was only an 8-cent spread on the board. Normal thinking would say the price will continue to gravitate lower as harvest begins. Then you look at the price of oats on the board and you have to scratch your head. Dec oats closed Friday at 5.21, the 3rd highest close ever. We have talked before about "the oat knows" saying. You really must ask what does the oat know right now, and what does this mean to my marketing plan.