Mark's Market Talk

Jun 26, 2023

Last week was a perfect example of the volatility we have in these grain markets. The crop ratings came out a day late due to the holiday and they were 3 percent lower than the trade expected. The forecast was dry and warm so Wednesday we shot right up. However, Wednesday afternoon after the close the EPA announced a reduction in the amount of veg oil that refiners will be required to blend next year. That sent the bean market strongly lower Thursday and carried into Friday’s trade. Corn held up decent on Thursday but then more rain was added to the forecast Thursday night which caused the corn market to lose 32 cents Friday. At the end of the week corn was down 10 cents while beans were 32 cents lower. To date the rain forecasts have not produced large coverage rains. Right now, 64 percent of the nation’s corn acres and 57 percent of the bean acres are in areas considered to be in some form of drought. This is more acres than were suffering at this time in 2012, and we know how that year turned out. The next USDA report will come out this Friday. It will contain the monthly stocks report plus an updated planted acreage report. The average trade guess on acres has farmers planting 500,000 less acres of both corn and beans. The number of prevent-planted acres will probably be smaller than thought early this spring when the northern plains were covered in snow. Now is not the time to take your seat belt off. We have a lot of weather between now and harvest including getting through pollination which is just around the corner.